Why this could be a scary Halloween for chocolate lovers

Thanks to weather conditions that have roiled production at the prime cocoa bean farms of West Africa the past several years, wholesale cocoa prices are at or near all-time highs and consumers shopping for treats to give away — or enjoy themselves — for Halloween should prepare for sticker shock.
A new report from banking giant Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute says the price of cocoa has nearly doubled since the beginning of 2024 as a result of low crop yields. Above average rainfall in the 2022-23 growing season led to a higher rate of diseased cocoa trees. This season, which just concluded in September, weather issues swung the other direction. Recent El Niño and hotter-than-normal seasonal harmattan winds brought dust that blocked light needed for bean pods to grow, reducing yields, according to Wells Fargo analysts.
And while checkout prices for chocolate treats are currently up about 7.5% from 2023 prices, according to data from Circana, the cost of non-chocolate treats has risen by double digits over last year, but are still running lower than items with cocoa products.
To keep Halloween spending from busting the household budget this year, Wells Fargo researchers suggest celebrators shop for sweet treats that contain less cocoa, going for the non-cocoa items or grabbing an item that has a filler and is not 100% cocoa, which should make it easier on family pockets.
Even as U.S. inflation was running hot through 2023, Halloween revelers spent $12.2 billion on the holiday last year, according to a report from the National Retail Federation. This time around, consumers are projected to slow down their spending just a bit, with the NRF projecting $11.6 billion in sales related to the celebration of All Hallow’s Eve.
Here’s how 2024 Halloween spending is expected to break down:
The NRF also conducted a survey in September asking participants how they planned to celebrate Halloween 2024. Here’s what they heard:
The National Retail Federation also discovered through its polling that a growing number of consumers are getting an early start in preparations for Halloween, with 47% of survey participants reporting they began their shopping before October.
“Halloween marks the official transition to the fall season for many Americans, and consumers are eager to get a jump start on purchasing new seasonal decor and other autumnal items,” Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights, said in a press release. “Retailers are prepared to meet this early demand by offering shoppers all the holiday essentials to make this year’s celebrations memorable.”